Down the road... 2022 regulatory look ahead

11 January 2022

Phil LloydManaging Director, Head of Customer Sales Delivery

View bio

John Stevenson-HamiltonRegulatory Client Engagement

View bio

Other insights

View more insights

Down the road... 2022 regulatory look ahead

In what is becoming a new year’s tradition (see last year’s) we take a look below at what we think the main regulatory themes will be in the year ahead.

Looking back on 2021, clearly LIBOR1 played a big part, ending not so much with a bang but a whimper. Year-end activities seem to have gone smoothly and we’re getting used to the new normal. ESG2 also dominated the agenda, and we expect to see this gain ever greater focus in the year ahead. 

Margin phase 5 came and went, with many relying on threshold monitoring rather than repapering (a risk that will become ever more acute with the higher volumes in phase 6). The possible divisions in regulatory approach created by Brexit have not really manifested yet, though we are seeing the first signs of things to come in the consultations on MiFID23 and positioning on EUR clearing.

Read on to see the main themes we expect to see in 2022, starting with a quick timeline...

  • LIBOR: as we set-out in Going, going, gone before Christmas, 31 Dec saw LIBOR end except for USD; no new transactions in USD LIBOR in any asset class are permitted from 1 January 2022 except for derivatives for risk management of existing positions (see FCA prohibition statement), with USD LIBOR finally ceasing in June 2023; the FCA4 announcement permitting tough legacy transactions in GBP & JPY LIBOR to reference synthetic LIBOR rates has provided a welcome safety net for any positions that didn’t transition or fallback at year end, but it leaves a tail of trades still to deal with in 2022; EONIA5 also ceased publication on 3 January (but EURIBOR6 continues).
  • ESG: climate-related and other ESG disclosures are going to become ever-more prevalent in the industry; the EU has led the charge with SFDR7 and CSDR8 (see our PIEs note), but the UK has recently made strong statements in their Green Finance Roadmap about their commitment to reporting under Sustainability Disclosure Requirements (SDR) and the UK Green Taxonomy; first up in January 2022 the EU is mandating qualitative disclosures under EU Taxonomy Regulation for ‘large undertakings’ (> 500 employees), accompanied by a high level quantitative disclosure of ‘taxonomy eligibility’. An interesting argument within the EU over Christmas around the inclusion of nuclear and gas within the EU taxonomy which underlines the challenges that will be faced globally as different jurisdictions start to implement their own taxonomies.
  • CSDR: the Central Securities Depository Regulation goes live in the EU on 1 Feb 2022, although there has been a delay to some of the requirements. The rules apply to firms that trade in-scope securities that settle on an EEA CSD – importantly the rules relating to mandatory buy-ins have been delayed (not yet decided until when), but various contractual agreements and operational processes do need to be in place for February; the UK did not onshore CSDR but there may be extra-territorial impacts for UK firms operating in the EU. For more information on CSDR see our website here.
  • FICC Research in UK: the FCA has announced it will no longer be necessary for firms subject to UK MiFID2 obligations to pay separately for FICC9 research (‘unbundling’) from 1 March 2022, although the exemption does not extend to macro-economic research. Firms within the EU subject to the original EU MiFID2 rules will still be subject to the inducement regime; if you are unsure whether the exemption should apply to your relationship with NatWest, please speak to your usual bank contact.
  • WMR/MiFID2: the Wholesale Markets Review (WMR) is the UK review of the MiFID2 regime it inherited from the EU; a consultation took place earlier in 2021, with further consultations expected in Q1/Q2 2022; though details and timing not yet clear, changes could have a significant impact in the area of transparency and the liquidity determination for fixed income / derivatives; meanwhile the EU is also revising MiFID2 with changes expected in Q2 following multiple consultation papers over the last 2 years, though given EU trilogue process, likely a further year before implementation; expect more discussion from EU on establishing a consolidated tape for EU markets as well, in line with Capital Markets Union commitments.
  • Margin: Initial Margin Phase 6 goes live on 1 Sep 2022; this pulls in a wide range of additional firms with AANA10 above $/€8bn; as with Phase 5 (where repapering across the industry is still not complete with reliance on Threshold Monitoring to alert counterparties to when they are approaching levels where IM would be required), this will require a huge lift in legal docs and operational set up. Another change for the UK affecting both Margin and Clearing is the upcoming loss of intragroup exemption in June 2022, impacting firms with legal entities both inside and outside the EU.
  • Clearing: the temporary equivalence decision by the EU, permitting EU firms to clear trades on UK based CCPs11, was due to expire in June 2022, however in November 2021 the Commission agreed to extend the exemption (though as yet we don’t know for how long); at the same time the UK has announced plans to consider relying on ‘comparable compliance’ from their home country for non-UK CCPs; on 17 Dec ESMA12 released a statement that they would not derecognise UK CCPs “at this point in time”, though they went on to list various measures they see as necessary to reduce systemic risk; a somewhat reluctant but ultimately welcome reprieve for EUR clearing for the time being.
  • PRIIPS: the change to the PRIIPS13 regulation is due to go live in EU on 1 July (having been delayed from 1 January 2022); it revises the performance calculations for category 2 to 4 PRIIPS significantly, with only a minor modification to category 1 PRIIPS calculations; following agreement on a delay, the UK on-shored version of the revised regulation will be published in Q1 – it is not yet known what lead time there will be before implementation, but it is hoped it will not go live until Jan 2023.  
  • EMIR Refit: both EU and UK are reviewing their versions of EMIR14 under the general heading of ‘EMIR Refit’. In the EU the final results are expected to be published in an RTS15 in Q1 2022 which will give final detail for example on the Trade & Transaction Reporting changes that will be required, with go-live probably 18 months later. In the UK a consultation is underway with final rules published in Q3 2022 for implementation the following year. In both cases quite substantial revisions are expected to T&TR; there are also changes in pipeline from CFTC16 for Dodd Frank reporting, meaning the scale of impact to operations teams is likely to be substantial.
  • UK Ringfencing: the independent Ring-fencing and Proprietary Trading (RFPT) Review is expected to publish a statement setting-out its initial findings and recommendations during the week commencing 17 January. These are likely to inform a detailed consultation by HM Treasury later in 2022. The UK currently has the most stringent post-crisis rules on structural separation of retail and wholesale activities, and the review has had a broad scope to consider whether these have met their original objectives of supporting financial stability, as well as their impacts on customers, competition and competitiveness.
  • Basel 3.1: due to apply from January 2023, implementing remaining Basel 317 provisions; the EBA18 has suggested that these rules will have an estimated increase of capital of 18.5% for EU banks; the PRA19 has been given significant discretion of how Basel 3.1 will be implemented for UK banks and plans to issue a consultation paper in Q3 2022. Both the UK and EU are committed to full, timely and consistent implementation of the remaining Basel standards, but doubts persist as to whether either jurisdiction will meet the 1 January 2023 deadline. Given the specificities of their respective economies there is now greater potential for divergence on detail. 
  • Crypto Assets: the draft Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is scheduled to come into force at the end of 2022; MiCA will establish a fully harmonised EU-wide regulatory framework for crypto-assets which will include crypto-asset service providers (CASPs); the FCA published a consultation paper concerning cryptoassets in January 2021, which ended in March.

For a more exhaustive list of the FCA’s planned regulatory agenda see the Regulatory Initiatives Grid they published In November.

We look forward to engaging clients in the year ahead on these and other topics. And for a trip down memory lane we list below the articles we published in 2021.

All the best for the new year.

 

That was the year that was...a look back at 2021:

Date

Description

10-Jan

What’s on my mind for 2021

29-Jan

​£ RFR Non-linear market - are we nearly there?

12-Feb

The cold legacy non-linear solution lies within the ICE Swap Rate formula

18-Feb

​ESG and regulation - carrot or stick?

05-Mar

X marks the spot for LIBOR end game

10-Mar

ESG Disclosure, SFDR. The start of things to come?

26-Mar

Dear CEO – this is not an April fool! The LIBOR Q1 milestones.

30-Mar

Webinar: LIBOR Q1 Industry Milestones

23-Apr

​Act now or fall back? The LIBOR transition dilemma.

11-May

SOFR, so good? BoE Governor takes aim at credit sensitive rates for USD LIBOR

03-Jun

Who ate all the PIEs? The inexorable rise of ESG reporting.

24-Jun

What’s left for £LIBOR? The loan tail.

02-Aug

Olympic sprint through some recent regulatory developments

01-Sep

A small margin for error? The 1st Sep IM deadline.

28-Sep

Are you ready for ISDA 2021 Definitions on 4th October?

29-Sep

How tough is Tough Legacy? FCA announcement on synthetic LIBOR.

05-Nov

Ringside seat at COP26 - notes from Glasgow

22-Nov

If at first you don’t succeed...next date for ISDA 2021 is MarkitWire switch on 27 Nov 

20-Dec

Going, going, gone. Wave goodbye to LIBOR this Christmas

 

Glossary:

1

LIBOR

London Inter-Bank Offered Rate

2

ESG

Environmental, Social, & Governance

3

MiFID2

Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2

4

FCA

Financial Conduct Authority

5

EONIA

Euro Overnight Index Average

6

EURIBOR

Euro Interbank Offered Rate

7

SFDR

Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation

8

CSDR

Central Securities Depository Regulation

9

FICC

Fixed Income Currencies & Commodities

10

AANA

Average Aggregated Notional Amount

11

CCPs

Central counterparties

12

ESMA

European Securities and Markets Authority 

13

PRIIPS

Packaged retail and insurance-based investment products

14

EMIR

European Market Infrastructure Regulation

15

RTS

Regulatory Technical Standards

16

CFTC

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

17

Basel 3

Third Basel Accord or Basel Standards

18

EBA

European Banking Authority

19

PRA

Prudential Regulation Authority

Regulation


Disclaimer:

This article has been prepared for information purposes only, does not constitute an analysis of all potentially material issues and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. NatWest Markets does not undertake to update you of such changes.  It is indicative only and is not binding. Other than as indicated, this article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information believed to be reliable but no representation, warranty, undertaking or assurance of any kind, express or implied, is made as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information contained in this article, nor does NatWest Markets accept any obligation to any recipient to update or correct any information contained herein. Views expressed herein are not intended to be and should not be viewed as advice or as a personal recommendation. The views expressed herein may not be objective or independent of the interests of the authors or other NatWest Markets trading desks, who may be active participants in the markets, investments or strategies referred to in this article. NatWest Markets will not act and has not acted as your legal, tax, regulatory, accounting or investment adviser; nor does NatWest Markets owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this, and/or any related transaction and no reliance may be placed on NatWest Markets for investment advice or recommendations of any sort. You should make your own independent evaluation of the relevance and adequacy of the information contained in this article and any issues that are of concern to you.

This article does not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, nor does it constitute an offer to provide any products or services that are capable of acceptance to form a contract. NatWest Markets and each of its respective affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this material or reliance on the information contained herein. However this shall not restrict, exclude or limit any duty or liability to any person under any applicable laws or regulations of any jurisdiction which may not be lawfully disclaimed.

NatWest Markets Plc. Incorporated and registered in Scotland No. 90312 with limited liability. Registered Office: 36 St Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. NatWest Markets N.V. is incorporated with limited liability in the Netherlands, authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten. It has its seat at Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and is registered in the Commercial Register under number 33002587. Registered Office: Claude Debussylaan 94, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Branch Reg No. in England BR001029. NatWest Markets Plc is, in certain jurisdictions, an authorised agent of NatWest Markets N.V. and NatWest Markets N.V. is, in certain jurisdictions, an authorised agent of NatWest Markets Plc. NatWest Markets Securities Japan Limited [Kanto Financial Bureau (Kin-sho) No. 202] is authorised and regulated by the Japan Financial Services Agency. Securities business in the United States is conducted through NatWest Markets Securities Inc., a FINRA registered broker-dealer (http://www.finra.org), a SIPC member (www.sipc.org) and a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of NatWest Markets Plc.

Copyright 2022 © NatWest Markets Plc. All rights reserved.