Monthly broadcasts for Corporates
Each month Neil Parker, FX Market Strategist, records his views on the current state of the markets, and forecasts what lies ahead for global currencies and the economy.
August 2021: Stuck out all alone? The UK de-restricts domestic COVID rules, but can it last?
The global economy is trying to go for a complete re-opening, but the renewed rise in COVID cases, led by the Delta variant, is presenting some obstacles. The UK government has given indications that it wants an approach that goes ahead and removes restrictions, but will that stand the test of time?
July 2021 Mixed emotions: Q2 in review, and what’s in store in Q3 fundamentally and technically?
Financial markets have recently seen a pull-back in risk appetite. Is this due to the news of additional strains of COVID, weakness from some of the economic data and surveys or the threat of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates more quickly than expected?
Moreover, having tested higher on multiple occasions, both the GBP and EUR looked to be getting a bit exhausted with the repeated failures.
So what is in store for the financial markets and economies now that Q2 is over?
June 2021: Re-start me up: Economies move to new unlocking phases
As many economies around the developed world start to unlock, the expectation is that we'll start to see an acceleration in activity and re-hiring. Are the markets already pricing this in? What’s that mean in terms of economic recovery, employment, inflation, monetary policy and markets?
May 2021: Flip the switch: Economics turn from ‘off to on’ as vaccines / unlocking provide a much needed boost
Last month central banks were fretting about the rise in yields reducing the pace of recovery, and potentially acting to limit further increases. Has this now flipped? There’s more acceptance that the global economy is recovering, and growing signs of potential inflation. Will we return to pre-pandemic levels of output more quickly than expected?
April 2021: What to do? Will central banks respond to the rise in global yields, or are they a symptom of recovery expectations?
Governments globally are expending billions and trillions to support civilisations through repeated lockdowns. As global yields rise, they could potentially become a threat to recovery as funding the debt could be more expensive in the long term. So what could central banks do to improve global economic conditions, and what might this mean for FX markets? Neil Parker, FX Markets Strategist, shares his views for the month ahead.
March 2021: One more shot - UK & Europe head for lockdown loosening
The significant success of the vaccination programme has led the UK government to finally announce the timetable to unlock the economy. In Europe where the vaccine programme still lags behind, nothing else seems to be accelerating much either. When will output recover and employment return to pre pandemic levels? Neil Parker, FX Markets Strategist, looks to the month ahead for FX markets.
February 2021: Coming down again - what do falling infection rates mean for lockdown easing, recoveries and markets?
Months of tight lockdowns and restrictions, and the vaccine programme is the ‘carrot’ of torment waving in front of consumers and businesses desperate for loosenings. When will governments to start easing restrictions? How and when will the economy recover, and what will be the impact on financial markets? Neil Parker, FX Markets Strategist, looks to the month ahead for FX markets.
January 2021: A rock and a hard place – 2021 gets off to a rocky start
This year is being labelled the ‘year of recovery’. While we’re focused on the vaccine programme being the silver lining, will new strains of COVID continue to shut down economies and leave more turbulence in its wake? Neil Parker, FX Markets Strategist, looks to the year ahead for FX markets.